Forecasting how many 3pts Stephen Curry will make by the end of his career

Background/Problem

Stephen Curry is widely regarded as the greatest shooter in NBA history, holding the all-time record for 3-pointers made. As part of a forecasting course project, I set out to predict how many 3-pointers he will make by the time he retires, using statistical modeling based on his historical performance and age-based decline trends.

Objective

Use forecasting and regression techniques to project the total number of 3-pointers Curry will make by the end of his NBA career, based on available seasonal data and assumptions around future playing time and performance decline.

My Role

• Collected and cleaned season-by-season Curry 3PT data (regular season).

• Engineered additional variables like age, games played, and 3PTS attempts per game.

• Built and compared multiple forecasting models including:

  • Fermi Estimate

  • Trend Exploration

  • Simulations

• Visualized forecasts with confidence intervals and scenario comparisons.

• Summarized insights and findings in a final project PDF report.

Tools & Skills Used

• Software: Python, Squiggle, Excel

• Skills:

  • Forecasting

  • Data wrangling and cleaning

  • Regression modeling

  • Data visualization

  • Scenario based projection

  • Basketball specific domain analysis

Final Forecast

My final 80% confidence interval is between 4300 and 6700 3s by retirement. This is in line with my initial Fermi estimate of 4969. The lower bound is well aligned with him continuing to play at a consistent level for the remainder of his contract, while the upper bound accounts for the possibility of a long, successful career.